Although the Breeders' Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don't follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.
While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners--Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed--and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I'm just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.
In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race"in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.
Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.
A couple more factors to consider are the horse's gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here--first of all, forget all horses that aren't intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn't born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.
Dosage index numbers have also taken on a great deal of significance in recent years. What are dosage numbers you ask? I have no clue, beyond the fact that theyre a complex mathematical measurement that reflects the quality of the horses family tree, as well as his performance as a two-year-old. The conventional wisdom is that horses with a dosage index over 4.00 are not supposed to be competitive at the long 1 mile distance. This isnt always the case, of course, but for the dilettante its a good factor to consider. Since 1984 (when dosage systems first came into vogue), the winners of nine Derby races were dosage system selections.
For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the 'big races' these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.
While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners--Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed--and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I'm just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.
In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race"in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.
Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.
A couple more factors to consider are the horse's gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here--first of all, forget all horses that aren't intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn't born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.
Dosage index numbers have also taken on a great deal of significance in recent years. What are dosage numbers you ask? I have no clue, beyond the fact that theyre a complex mathematical measurement that reflects the quality of the horses family tree, as well as his performance as a two-year-old. The conventional wisdom is that horses with a dosage index over 4.00 are not supposed to be competitive at the long 1 mile distance. This isnt always the case, of course, but for the dilettante its a good factor to consider. Since 1984 (when dosage systems first came into vogue), the winners of nine Derby races were dosage system selections.
For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the 'big races' these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.
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